{"id":7172,"date":"2026-03-04T14:00:47","date_gmt":"2026-03-04T14:00:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fondationfranceasie.org\/?p=7172"},"modified":"2026-03-25T14:09:38","modified_gmt":"2026-03-25T14:09:38","slug":"modele","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fondationfranceasie.org\/en\/modele\/","title":{"rendered":"LDP’s sweeping Japan’s legislative Sanae Takaichi historic mandate."},"content":{"rendered":"
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By Yves Carmona<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Elections for the House of Representatives were\u00a0 held on 8 February. This time, the polls were\u00a0 right: Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae won her\u00a0 gamble hands down, with a surprise dissolution\u00a0 and a very tight schedule (16 days of\u00a0 campaigning), even in the eyes of her own\u00a0 party, as there had not been an announcement\u00a0 of a dissolution since 1966 at the opening of the\u00a0 parliamentary session.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

She also took the risk of announcing it before the\u00a0 budget debate, which also surprised her party,\u00a0 and she turned it into a referendum on her\u00a0 policies: this resulted in an electoral triumph,\u00a0 even though her popularity rating dropped significantly immediately after the announcement of the dissolution. The result is\u00a0 clear.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

In a House of Representatives with 465\u00a0 members (289 elected by majority vote and 176\u00a0 by proportional representation), her party, the\u00a0 Liberal Democratic Party (LDP, conservative),\u00a0 won 310 seats, two-thirds of the seats in the\u00a0 Assembly for the first time since this electoral\u00a0 system was introduced in 1996. This allows the lower house to pass its bills even if they are\u00a0 rejected in the upper house, where the LDP is in\u00a0 the minority.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The LDP no longer even needs an alliance such\u00a0 as the one that has enabled it to govern since\u00a0 September 2025 with the nationalist Japan\u00a0 Innovation Party. The latter, which is well\u00a0 established in Osaka, failed to win any seats\u00a0 ouside of that region. This comfortable situation\u00a0 for the LDP has not been seen since the Second\u00a0 World War. Furthermore, if exit polls are to be\u00a0 believed, young people voted heavily for Ms\u00a0 Takaichi, while the LDP appeared ageing and\u00a0 losing momentum.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

However, there was a certain amount of\u00a0 irritation surrounding this election campaign: an\u00a0 election in February takes place in the snow,\u00a0 which happened even in Tokyo and not just in\u00a0 Hokkaido, where it is more common.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Wasn’t that precisely the objective, to weaken\u00a0 the opposition? The centrist party was founded\u00a0 on 16 January by the Constitutional Democratic\u00a0 Party and the Komeito Party. Its aim was to unite\u00a0\u00a0centrist forces under the slogan \u2018Citizens First\u2019,\u00a0 but it suffered a crushing defeat, falling from 167\u00a0 seats before the elections to 49 seats, a loss of\u00a0 70%.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Important figures such as the founder of the\u00a0 Constitutional Party, Edano, the veteran leader\u00a0 Ozawa Ichiro, and other executives were\u00a0 defeated one after another. The leaders of both\u00a0 parties, former Prime Minister Noda and Mr.\u00a0 Saito, resigned, taking responsibility for the\u00a0 defeat.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

At a press conference early in the morning of\u00a0 the 9th, Mr. Noda stated: \u2018This is an enormous\u00a0 responsibility that deserves a thousand deaths.\u2019\u00a0 It must be said that the alliance, forged just\u00a0 before the elections, between the \u2018Constitutional\u00a0 Party\u2019 defending the pacifist Constitution of 3\u00a0 November 1946, led by Mr Edano Yukio, a former\u00a0 minister several times over, could hardly\u00a0 embody renewal. The alliance between the heir\u00a0 to the Socialist Party and the Komeito (Buddhist\u00a0 Party of Light) certainly confused voters on both\u00a0 sides, leading to this historic setback.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

It wasn\u2019t seen since at least 1969, when only the\u00a0 Tokyo governorship was at stake, at a time\u00a0 when the Buddhist party was playing the game\u00a0 of siding with the left!<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

However, dissatisfaction remains with the LDP,\u00a0 which is regularly accused of campaigning,\u00a0 which in Japan is particularly costly, with hidden\u00a0 money, especially that of the Unification Church\u00a0 (Moon sect), while the majority of citizens see\u00a0 their purchasing power stagnate, at a time\u00a0 when Mr. Trump is striking in all directions,\u00a0 sometimes with an increase in customs duties,\u00a0 his favourite weapon, and sometimes by\u00a0 increasing the already high contribution to\u00a0 defence spending, which is supposed to protect\u00a0 Japan from hostile neighbours (North Korea and\u00a0 China, at the very least), while the US\u00a0 President’s inconsistency offers little guarantee\u00a0 of its effectiveness.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Ms Takaichi, for her part, is skilfully promoting\u00a0 economic revitalisation and support for\u00a0 purchasing power (remember that her role\u00a0 model was Mrs Thatcher…).<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

This is particularly the case with energy: her\u00a0 government has approved the restart of the\u00a0 Kashiwazaki-Kariwa nuclear power plant, the\u00a0 largest in the world, 13 years after the Fukushima\u00a0 disaster, which led to the shutdown of all nuclear\u00a0 power plants, some of which have since been\u00a0 brought back into service.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Revitalisation is also underway in the \u2018oil of the\u00a0 21st century\u2019, semiconductors. The world leader\u00a0 in high-end products, Taiwan’s TSMC, is set to\u00a0 invest $12.2 billion in Kumamoto, with the\u00a0 government promising to contribute, according\u00a0 to Ms Takaichi. Artificial intelligence will be the\u00a0 main market for this investment. At the same\u00a0 time, national champion Rapidus is bringing\u00a0 together 30 shareholder companies, led by\u00a0 Softbank and Sony.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

One of her strengths is her pragmatism. At\u00a0 the start of the campaign, she promised a\u00a0 review of labour standards, the first since\u00a0 1987, in response to popular sentiment: a\u00a0 new employee of advertising giant Dentsu\u00a0 had committed suicide due to overwork\u00a0 after working long hours of overtime.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Another strength is that she is a woman,\u00a0 something that had never been seen before. Ms.\u00a0 Tsujimoto, a former socialist leader, has been\u00a0 very complimentary about her tenacity, even\u00a0 though they belong to opposing camps: Ms.\u00a0 Takaishi has broken the \u2018glass ceiling\u2019 that\u00a0 weighed and continues to weigh on women in\u00a0 politics.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

More generally, the market, temporarily\u00a0 concerned about the continuation of\u00a0 quantitative easing policies that increase public\u00a0 debt, fuel inflation, cause the yen to fall against\u00a0 the dollar and encourage Japanese investors to\u00a0 increasingly invest abroad, and her comments\u00a0 shortly before the start of the campaign when\u00a0 she stated that \u2018fiscal policy to date had been\u00a0 affected by the \u201ccurse of excessive austerity\u201d\u2019,\u00a0 the market was ultimately very satisfied with the\u00a0 LDP’s victory, rising by 3.89% on 9 February.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

With regard to supporting purchasing power,\u00a0 which is the number one concern of the\u00a0 Japanese, followed by retirement and security\u00a0 issues, Ms Takaichi announced the abolition of\u00a0 consumption tax on food products and\u00a0 beverages for the next two years.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

At the crossroads between foreign and\u00a0 domestic policy, on 23 January, once the\u00a0 election campaign had begun, the government\u00a0 adopted a package of measures to be\u00a0 implemented by the summer concerning\u00a0 foreigners, who numbered 2.57 million in\u00a0 October 2025, an increase of 11.7% over the\u00a0 previous year. The largest group are\u00a0 Vietnamese, followed by Chinese, Filipinos,\u00a0 Nepalese and Indonesians.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

They will be liable to stricter rules on land\u00a0 acquisition and nationality status, as well as\u00a0 programmes to study the Japanese language\u00a0 and way of life. Measures will also be taken\u00a0 against \u2018overtourism\u2019 with encouragement to\u00a0 broaden the scope of visits.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Diplomacy has not been forgotten. Admittedly,\u00a0 at the end of November 2025, Mz Takaichi fell\u00a0 into the trap set by the leader of the\u00a0 Constitutionalist Party, Noda, a veteran\u00a0 politician: she responded that if Taiwan were\u00a0 attacked, it would constitute an \u2018existential\u2019\u00a0 threat to Japan, which provoked strong\u00a0 reprimands and economic reprisals from\u00a0 Beijing.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Since then, she has pretended to ignore Beijing’s\u00a0 displeasure, which has earned her great\u00a0 popularity: finally, a Prime Minister who knows\u00a0 how to stand up to the Chinese authorities,\u00a0 whose anger she then ignored without any\u00a0 immediate consequences.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

She also took care to showcase her international\u00a0 stature: she has a good relationship with South\u00a0 Korean President Lee Jae-myung, whom she\u00a0 met on 13 January and with whom she agrees\u00a0 on many issues, from the fight against\u00a0 organised crime to North Korea’s nuclear\u00a0 weapons programme. Neither of them publicly\u00a0 expressed what is on everyone’s mind: the need\u00a0 to stand up to Beijing’s drive for hegemony.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

She also met with Ms Meloni on 16 January.\u00a0 Japan and Italy will cooperate on access to\u00a0 critical minerals and space, as well as on\u00a0 liquefied natural gas with Italian giant ENI.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

She also made a point of meeting quickly with\u00a0 President Trump and the leaders of South-East\u00a0 Asian countries at the ASEAN summit.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Finally, she received British Prime Minister\u00a0 Starmer on 31 January, and they shared their\u00a0 concerns in the field of security, including\u00a0 economic security, preserving access to critical\u00a0 minerals and launching a cyber security\u00a0 partnership. They shared their views on Chinese\u00a0 intrusions.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Conclusion: A veritable \u2018Takaichi fever\u2019, as\u00a0 the press has dubbed it, has swept through\u00a0 the youth.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The first woman to hold the highest office,\u00a0 smiling, friendly, and not afraid to say or claim to\u00a0 say what she thinks, it is striking to note that she\u00a0 inspires sympathy even among the opposition.\u00a0 She may be described as a \u2018populist\u2019, but the\u00a0 fact remains that her image of approachability\u00a0 contributes to her success.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

What will happen now? According to the\u00a0 mainstream Japanese press, she will form a\u00a0 second government tasked with implementing\u00a0 her promises, including promoting a responsible\u00a0 and proactive fiscal policy, reviewing security\u00a0 policy and strengthening intelligence\u00a0 capabilities.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

She will therefore have to maintain a difficult\u00a0 balance between all these objectives. One of the\u00a0 factors contributing to increased spending is the\u00a0 rise in social security expenditure due to the\u00a0 ageing population, and there is little she can do\u00a0 about this.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The cost of repairing ageing infrastructure is\u00a0 also rising, and the reality is that \u2018this is\u00a0 expansion rather than austerity\u2019 (government\u00a0 economic officials).<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

As a result, there is scepticism in financial circles\u00a0 about her success: \u2018If public finances to date have\u00a0 been \u201cexcessively austere\u201d in Ms Takaichi’s eyes, I\u00a0 wonder if her fiscal policy is not quite the opposite,\u2019\u00a0 said one of the major players in the banking\u00a0 sector, noting that “Japan’s indulgence has\u00a0 accelerated further due to the new coronavirus\u00a0 (COVID) disaster. A huge supplementary budget\u00a0 has been prepared, and the scale of spending in\u00a0 2020 has reached 147.6 trillion yen (nearly 800\u00a0 billion yen at current rates), the largest ever\u00a0 recorded.”<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Admittedly, the Japanese are the main\u00a0 subscribers, but a financial crisis cannot be\u00a0 ruled out in the long term…<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

*****<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

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A former student of the \u00c9cole Nationale d\u2019Administration (ENA) and a career diplomat, Yves CARMONA\u00a0 spent most of his career in Asia: twice posted as Counsellor for Foreign Affairs in Japan, then as Deputy\u00a0 Chief of Mission in Singapore, and later as Ambassador to Laos and Nepal (2012\u20132018). In these\u00a0 positions, as well as in those he held in Paris, he focused\u2014drawing also on his background as a\u00a0 student of Japanese\u2014on the rapid transformations of Asian countries and their relations with France\u00a0 and Europe. Now retired, he is committed to sharing his experience with those who may benefit from it.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

This publication reflects the views and opinions of the individual authors. As a platform dedicated to the sharing of information and ideas, our objective is to highlight a diversity of perspectives. Accordingly, the opinions expressed herein should not be interpreted as those of the Fondation France-Asie or its affiliates.<\/p>\n

<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Yves Carmona   Elections for the House of Representatives were\u00a0 held on 8 February. This time, the polls were\u00a0 right: Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae won her\u00a0 gamble hands down, with a surprise dissolution\u00a0 and a very tight schedule (16 days of\u00a0 campaigning), even in the eyes of her own\u00a0 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":6955,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"episode_type":"","audio_file":"","cover_image":"","cover_image_id":"","duration":"","filesize":"","date_recorded":"","explicit":"","block":"","filesize_raw":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[118],"tags":[],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fondationfranceasie.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7172"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fondationfranceasie.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fondationfranceasie.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fondationfranceasie.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fondationfranceasie.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7172"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/fondationfranceasie.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7172\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7225,"href":"https:\/\/fondationfranceasie.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7172\/revisions\/7225"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fondationfranceasie.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/6955"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fondationfranceasie.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7172"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fondationfranceasie.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7172"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fondationfranceasie.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7172"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}