LDP’s sweeping Japan’s legislative Sanae Takaichi historic mandate.

By Yves Carmona

Elections for the House of Representatives were  held on 8 February. This time, the polls were  right: Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae won her  gamble hands down, with a surprise dissolution  and a very tight schedule (16 days of  campaigning), even in the eyes of her own  party, as there had not been an announcement  of a dissolution since 1966 at the opening of the  parliamentary session.

She also took the risk of announcing it before the  budget debate, which also surprised her party,  and she turned it into a referendum on her  policies: this resulted in an electoral triumph,  even though her popularity rating dropped significantly immediately after the announcement of the dissolution. The result is  clear.

In a House of Representatives with 465  members (289 elected by majority vote and 176  by proportional representation), her party, the  Liberal Democratic Party (LDP, conservative),  won 310 seats, two-thirds of the seats in the  Assembly for the first time since this electoral  system was introduced in 1996. This allows the lower house to pass its bills even if they are  rejected in the upper house, where the LDP is in  the minority.

The LDP no longer even needs an alliance such  as the one that has enabled it to govern since  September 2025 with the nationalist Japan  Innovation Party. The latter, which is well  established in Osaka, failed to win any seats  ouside of that region. This comfortable situation  for the LDP has not been seen since the Second  World War. Furthermore, if exit polls are to be  believed, young people voted heavily for Ms  Takaichi, while the LDP appeared ageing and  losing momentum.

However, there was a certain amount of  irritation surrounding this election campaign: an  election in February takes place in the snow,  which happened even in Tokyo and not just in  Hokkaido, where it is more common.

Wasn't that precisely the objective, to weaken  the opposition? The centrist party was founded  on 16 January by the Constitutional Democratic  Party and the Komeito Party. Its aim was to unite  centrist forces under the slogan ‘Citizens First’,  but it suffered a crushing defeat, falling from 167  seats before the elections to 49 seats, a loss of  70%.

Important figures such as the founder of the  Constitutional Party, Edano, the veteran leader  Ozawa Ichiro, and other executives were  defeated one after another. The leaders of both  parties, former Prime Minister Noda and Mr.  Saito, resigned, taking responsibility for the  defeat.

At a press conference early in the morning of  the 9th, Mr. Noda stated: ‘This is an enormous  responsibility that deserves a thousand deaths.’  It must be said that the alliance, forged just  before the elections, between the ‘Constitutional  Party’ defending the pacifist Constitution of 3  November 1946, led by Mr Edano Yukio, a former  minister several times over, could hardly  embody renewal. The alliance between the heir  to the Socialist Party and the Komeito (Buddhist  Party of Light) certainly confused voters on both  sides, leading to this historic setback.

It wasn’t seen since at least 1969, when only the  Tokyo governorship was at stake, at a time  when the Buddhist party was playing the game  of siding with the left!

However, dissatisfaction remains with the LDP,  which is regularly accused of campaigning,  which in Japan is particularly costly, with hidden  money, especially that of the Unification Church  (Moon sect), while the majority of citizens see  their purchasing power stagnate, at a time  when Mr. Trump is striking in all directions,  sometimes with an increase in customs duties,  his favourite weapon, and sometimes by  increasing the already high contribution to  defence spending, which is supposed to protect  Japan from hostile neighbours (North Korea and  China, at the very least), while the US  President's inconsistency offers little guarantee  of its effectiveness.

Ms Takaichi, for her part, is skilfully promoting  economic revitalisation and support for  purchasing power (remember that her role  model was Mrs Thatcher...).

This is particularly the case with energy: her  government has approved the restart of the  Kashiwazaki-Kariwa nuclear power plant, the  largest in the world, 13 years after the Fukushima  disaster, which led to the shutdown of all nuclear  power plants, some of which have since been  brought back into service.

Revitalisation is also underway in the ‘oil of the  21st century’, semiconductors. The world leader  in high-end products, Taiwan's TSMC, is set to  invest $12.2 billion in Kumamoto, with the  government promising to contribute, according  to Ms Takaichi. Artificial intelligence will be the  main market for this investment. At the same  time, national champion Rapidus is bringing  together 30 shareholder companies, led by  Softbank and Sony.

One of her strengths is her pragmatism. At  the start of the campaign, she promised a  review of labour standards, the first since  1987, in response to popular sentiment: a  new employee of advertising giant Dentsu  had committed suicide due to overwork  after working long hours of overtime.

Another strength is that she is a woman,  something that had never been seen before. Ms.  Tsujimoto, a former socialist leader, has been  very complimentary about her tenacity, even  though they belong to opposing camps: Ms.  Takaishi has broken the ‘glass ceiling’ that  weighed and continues to weigh on women in  politics.

More generally, the market, temporarily  concerned about the continuation of  quantitative easing policies that increase public  debt, fuel inflation, cause the yen to fall against  the dollar and encourage Japanese investors to  increasingly invest abroad, and her comments  shortly before the start of the campaign when  she stated that ‘fiscal policy to date had been  affected by the “curse of excessive austerity”’,  the market was ultimately very satisfied with the  LDP's victory, rising by 3.89% on 9 February.

With regard to supporting purchasing power,  which is the number one concern of the  Japanese, followed by retirement and security  issues, Ms Takaichi announced the abolition of  consumption tax on food products and  beverages for the next two years.

At the crossroads between foreign and  domestic policy, on 23 January, once the  election campaign had begun, the government  adopted a package of measures to be  implemented by the summer concerning  foreigners, who numbered 2.57 million in  October 2025, an increase of 11.7% over the  previous year. The largest group are  Vietnamese, followed by Chinese, Filipinos,  Nepalese and Indonesians.

They will be liable to stricter rules on land  acquisition and nationality status, as well as  programmes to study the Japanese language  and way of life. Measures will also be taken  against ‘overtourism’ with encouragement to  broaden the scope of visits.

Diplomacy has not been forgotten. Admittedly,  at the end of November 2025, Mz Takaichi fell  into the trap set by the leader of the  Constitutionalist Party, Noda, a veteran  politician: she responded that if Taiwan were  attacked, it would constitute an ‘existential’  threat to Japan, which provoked strong  reprimands and economic reprisals from  Beijing.

Since then, she has pretended to ignore Beijing's  displeasure, which has earned her great  popularity: finally, a Prime Minister who knows  how to stand up to the Chinese authorities,  whose anger she then ignored without any  immediate consequences.

She also took care to showcase her international  stature: she has a good relationship with South  Korean President Lee Jae-myung, whom she  met on 13 January and with whom she agrees  on many issues, from the fight against  organised crime to North Korea's nuclear  weapons programme. Neither of them publicly  expressed what is on everyone's mind: the need  to stand up to Beijing's drive for hegemony.

She also met with Ms Meloni on 16 January.  Japan and Italy will cooperate on access to  critical minerals and space, as well as on  liquefied natural gas with Italian giant ENI.

She also made a point of meeting quickly with  President Trump and the leaders of South-East  Asian countries at the ASEAN summit.

Finally, she received British Prime Minister  Starmer on 31 January, and they shared their  concerns in the field of security, including  economic security, preserving access to critical  minerals and launching a cyber security  partnership. They shared their views on Chinese  intrusions.

Conclusion: A veritable ‘Takaichi fever’, as  the press has dubbed it, has swept through  the youth.

The first woman to hold the highest office,  smiling, friendly, and not afraid to say or claim to  say what she thinks, it is striking to note that she  inspires sympathy even among the opposition.  She may be described as a ‘populist’, but the  fact remains that her image of approachability  contributes to her success.

What will happen now? According to the  mainstream Japanese press, she will form a  second government tasked with implementing  her promises, including promoting a responsible  and proactive fiscal policy, reviewing security  policy and strengthening intelligence  capabilities.

She will therefore have to maintain a difficult  balance between all these objectives. One of the  factors contributing to increased spending is the  rise in social security expenditure due to the  ageing population, and there is little she can do  about this.

The cost of repairing ageing infrastructure is  also rising, and the reality is that ‘this is  expansion rather than austerity’ (government  economic officials).

As a result, there is scepticism in financial circles  about her success: ‘If public finances to date have  been “excessively austere” in Ms Takaichi's eyes, I  wonder if her fiscal policy is not quite the opposite,’  said one of the major players in the banking  sector, noting that "Japan's indulgence has  accelerated further due to the new coronavirus  (COVID) disaster. A huge supplementary budget  has been prepared, and the scale of spending in  2020 has reached 147.6 trillion yen (nearly 800  billion yen at current rates), the largest ever  recorded."

Admittedly, the Japanese are the main  subscribers, but a financial crisis cannot be  ruled out in the long term...

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