Nepal, the elections have taken place.

NB: Thanks to Nepali friends who helped us write this article as accurately as possible, in particular Sujeev Shakya, Kunda Dixit, founder and editorialist of the weekly Nepali Times, and press review at the French Embassy.

Elections have taken place, isn't that usual?

The author of these lines would like to remind those with short memories that in the week of 8 September, Nepal was, in the press, nothing but fire and blood, with Generation Z taking power and every revolution breaking out around the world, from Madagascar to Sri Lanka, marked by the same seal. The police did indeed kill dozens of demonstrators, but were they able to maintain order with weapons dating from the Second World War and troops recruited through cronyism, without training?

However, the woman who became Prime Minister in agreement with representatives of this generation, which some considered unconstitutional, Ms Sushila Karki, was 73 years old, a far cry from the age of this ‘Generation Z’, which is nevertheless representative of a country where the median age is around 25.

But the difference between her and the other elders who organised their turn to succeed each other in power, of whom the most dangerous, the ferocious Prachanda, who is the only one from the traditional leaders’ club who won the first past the post elections (scrutiny uninominal) is that Ms Karki will step down because she agreed from the outset to be interim leader.

The elections that have just taken place –because they did indeed take place, firmly supervised by the Electoral Commission, with ballot papers transported by the army when necessary and the results still subject to review by the Supreme Court – were closely watched by the international community.

The international community helped Nepal to organize them, with India providing over 300 vehicles, Japan granting a subsidy, and the UNDP working to combat electoral disinformation and cyber threats.

These were elections for young people, with 800,000 new voters registering and voting en masse. A mother whose son was killed by the police on 8 September stood as a candidate for the RSP, which she believed was the only party capable of continuing the fight for which he died: honest governance rather than demagogic promises.

However, there were countless obstacles, but they were overcome:

The ‘peaceful’ national movement (whose leader was responsible for the deaths of two people in March) launched a civil disobedience campaign that was supposed to begin on 23 November, but nothing more was ever heard about it.

‘Communist’ parties united under the leadership of Prachanda ‘the Fierce’ on the pretext that the elections were unconstitutional, but the Supreme Court ruled that they were necessary.

Some wanted to see the hand of foreign powers, either India or China, with the former supposedly supporting the former king's efforts to regain power and rebuild a Hindu state, which is the dream of some Nepali. The elections removed this threat; in reality, the two major powers were careful not to interfere in Nepal's highly volatile domestic politics.

However, India's dominance over certain hydroelectric dams, one of the country's main resources, was confirmed after former Prime Minister Oli unsuccessfully attempted to play the ‘China card’.

Other sensitive issues highlighted by the press since late October: how to ensure that Nepali citizens abroad can vote? The Supreme Court had ordered the government to do so in 2018. However, at least 5 million people, a quarter of the electorate, were deprived of their right to vote. The interruption of air traffic in the Gulf, where at least 2 million people have emigrated, further added to the practical impossibility of voting, even though their remittances to the country represent more than a quarter of its GDP. Unlike Bangladesh, postal voting is not possible in Nepal.

One of these former emigrants is attracting particular attention because she has just stood for election to the legislature. Against her parents' wishes, she learned Korean, worked for a while in South Korea and set up her own business on her return home. Now she is a candidate.

On the other hand, how can the security of polling stations be ensured when many prisoners are still on the run with stolen weapons? ‘There can be no democracy without security,’ some newspapers pointed out. A task force was formed with représentative from the army, the police, the armed police and the judicial police, totalling 314,000 security personnel, including temporary staff recruited by the police without delay. The elections took place without violence.

Mr Kulman Ghising, revered as a saint for restoring electricity that had been confiscated by corrupt officials, served as Energy Minister under Ms Karki until 8 January, when he resigned to stand for election. It was thought that he would join forces with other very popular figures, such as rapper and Kathmandu Mayor Balendra Shah, whose slogan is ‘talk less, do more’, and TV presenter Rabi Lamichhane, but this did not happen. The latter is accused of embezzlement, while Balendra Shah is unblemished: he is therefore the one who best embodies change.

At the same time, the Labour Party, the champion of the fight against absolute monarchy and the largest and oldest party in Nepal, has undergone the necessary generational change, with Gagan Thapa (49) succeeding former Prime Minister (five times!) Sher Bahadur Deuba, 79. With the fall of his contemporary Oli, a new era in Nepali political life has begun.

The debate has also raged over more structural issues.

Until now, the Prime Minister has been appointed indirectly: Parliament votes, while some would prefer him or her to be elected directly by the citizens – but others see this as a risk of authoritarianism. We are still a long way from this, as ‘in just over fifteen years, the country has seen at least fourteen successive governments, none of which has managed to complete its term of office,’ notes Ms Steinmann, an anthropologist.

Federalism, enshrined in the Constitution, does not work to everyone's satisfaction, so much so that some extremists advocate autonomy or even independence for Madesh, the southernmost region, which has long felt discriminated against by the capital, especially since former Prime Minister Oli has again expressed what is considered a racist opinion about its citizens.

In January, the upper house was renewed and the old Labour and UML parties shared 17 of the 18 seats. However, the RSP, which won the elections, will have to work with them to get the law passed.

Ms Karki, for her part, took care to consult the political parties in order to organise the elections at all costs.

120 partis registered for the 165 majority constituencies, with 3,406 candidates (only 11% of whom were women), and 64 parties nominated 3,210 candidates for proportional representation.

The turnout rate was high at 59%, although slightly lower than in the previous legislative elections (2022), due to the fact that voters sometimes had to walk several kilometres through snow-covered mountains to cast their ballots. In 2022, it took three weeks to count the votes, but this time it should be quicker.

The author of this article witnessed the first normal parliamentary elections since 1999 in 2017; a joyful crowd, dressed in their finest clothes, flocked to the polls, such was the importance of the implementation of the right to vote in this country.

The most spectacular result was Balendra Shah's victory over former Prime Minister Oli in the constituency that Oli had long held in Jhapa. The 35-year-old mayor of Kathmandu is a more complex figure than the media portray him as a ‘rapper’... Originally from Madhesh, he will be the first Buddhist prime minister in a predominantly Hindu country, which does not prevent him from being very popular, a fine example of tolerance.

In fact, the Madhesi parties that played on this image to consolidate their power were eliminated.

The RSP ran an exemplary campaign in terms of its effectiveness:

Shah gave an important speech every eight days, leaving enough time for a team of 660 people in charge of social media to amplify each rally.

The RSP also organised presentation tours in five to seven districts every day, accompanied by brief daily appearances in one of Nepal's seven provinces, where Shah met voters and forged links with them.

‘If you keep giving speeches, people end up confused,’ said a party official, who asked to remain anonymous. ‘We let the opposition parties raise certain issues, then we respond to them once. That way, our message remains clear.’

The centralised campaign system and large events were funded directly by the party, which received significant donations from Nepali living abroad, particularly in the United States, according to two officials.

The RSP thus took the place, social-democratic, of the Labour Party and eliminated the ‘communist’ UML.

Even more promising is the end of a political system based on unshakeable cadres in favour of meritocracy.

Finally, the 2015 Constitution was upheld despite being contested, as it allows the government to exercise full authority, if necessary with a two-thirds majority.

Conclusion

At the time of writing, it is not known, even though the Western media have already announced the result, whether the victory of the RSP (138 votes are needed in the Assembly to govern) will quickly lead to the formation of a government led by Prime Minister Balendra Shah, despite the rivalry of Rabi Lamichhane, who is also popular, who the ministers will be and, above all, what policies will be implemented.

At least we can hope that former Prime Minister Oli, reappointed by his party in an unreal atmosphere but severely defeated at the polls, will finally retire, cutting the ground from under those who would like to see him go to prison because of the 19 young people who died before he resigned.

Nepal deserves to see corruption no longer hinder its progress, and for its young people to be able to live and work in their own country rather than leaving for many years and sometimes dying – the press reports three or four deaths per day, and the author of this article saw one of these coffins at Kathmandu airport – on construction sites in the Gulf.

It is to be hoped that the winners will devote themselves to these issues. It is high time, given that the World Bank has revised its growth forecasts downwards (except for the trade deficit), that the rate of non-performing loans is rising and that debt, although still moderate, is increasing: the business climate needs to improve.

It is also necessary to continue the fight against money laundering initiated by Ms Karki's interim government and to leave the FATF grey list. The Minister of Finance has undertaken the necessary reforms and is aware that the relative weakness of foreign direct investment inflows reflects above all a lack of confidence in the national financial system. Priorities include strengthening investigations, prosecutions and sanctions in money laundering cases, with increased evidentiary requirements and rapid asset seizure mechanisms. Transparency issues concern both the financial system and the capital market.

The private sector, through various bodies, wants political stability and investment security: everything remains to be done in this area.

A particularly striking example is the 1,200 MW Budhi-Gandaki hydroelectric project, an essential resource for Nepal, which has been out of service for a quarter of a century.

Tractebel proved its feasibility in 2011, but successive financing projects were decided and then cancelled for political reasons until the National Planning Commission, whose vice-president Swarnim Wagle may be the next finance minister, recommended state financing.

The election campaign favoured behaviours that evoked the ‘old’ parties rather than the dedication required of Generation Z. In a highly balkanised country, each region's quest for identity, particularly that of Nepal's most populous region, Madhesh, will be a challenge for this new political leadership. One cannot help but share the Nepali Times' wish after the elections:

"The addition of layers of bureaucracy, committees and partisan politics at the federal, provincial and local levels has led to resistance to the simple goal of making life easier for Nepali people.

Nepal is making a fresh start, and the coming months will show whether the country is on the right track with its new generation of government."

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